The COVID Decade

The COVID Decade

  The Covid Decade Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist, Global Financial Data             Everyone hates Covid-19 and the way it has disrupted our lives.  The Covid pandemic has shut down the world and led to the layoff of millions of workers.  Unemployment has soared,...
Building a New Bull

Building a New Bull

Building a New Bull Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist, Global Financial Data   The S&P 500 reached new highs last week causing some analysts to call this the fastest recovery from a bear market in history; however, this shows that many analysts are not looking at...
The Worst March in History!

The Worst March in History!

The Worst March in History! Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist, Global Financial Data   Not only did the Covid Crisis send stocks tumbling in March throughout the world, but it also created some of the worst monthly performances for the month of March in stock market...
Bear: 24 and Counting

Bear: 24 and Counting

The U.S. stock market fell into a bear market on March 12, 2020 ending the bull market that began in 2009. The bull market began on March 9, 2009 and peaked on February 19, 2020.  During this raging bull, the S&P 500 rose 400% between 2009 and 2020, the Dow Jones...
The Superbowl Market Continues!

The Superbowl Market Continues!

  We can call the current bull market, as seen in figure 1. the Superbowl market since it has now increased by more than 400%.  On February 19, 2020 the S&P 500 closed at 3386.15 meaning that the current bull market has increased by over 400% from its closing...
The Market’s Thirty-Year Cycle Continues

The Market’s Thirty-Year Cycle Continues

  The United States stock market has been moving in 30-year Cycles since the 1890s.  Now that the 2010s have finished, we can examine the data to see if this pattern continued during the previous decade.  The short answer is, it did! Table 1 provides the real...
Events in Time Anniversaries: February 2020

Events in Time Anniversaries: February 2020

    25 years ago: February 1995 S&P 500: 487.39 (vs. 3380.16 in 02/2020) 10-year U.S. Government Bond Yield: 7.22% (vs. 1.59% in 02/2020) Gold: $376.40 (vs. $1581.40 in 02/2020) Oil: $18.515 (vs. $52.03 in 02/2020) GBP/USD: 1.5825 (vs. 1.3046 in 02/2020)...

300 years of the Equity-Risk Premium

  The equity-risk premium (ERP) is one of the most important variables in finance. It tells investors how much a risky investment such as stocks returns relative to a risk-free investment such as government bonds.  Any history of the equity premium shows that its...
Another Sign of an Overvalued Market?

Another Sign of an Overvalued Market?

  The United States stock market has broken to new highs in January 2020, continuing a bull market that began in March 2009.  The S&P 500 has risen 382% since March 2009 and is approaching the record bull market of 1974-1987 in which the S&P 500 rose...
India: Four Centuries of Underdevelopment

India: Four Centuries of Underdevelopment

The Global Financial Database has more equity history for India than for any other country.  The British East India Co. was founded on December 31, 1600, preceding the founding of the Dutch East India Co. by one year.  Originally, shares were issued for specific...
Mexico: Still Emerging 200 Years Later

Mexico: Still Emerging 200 Years Later

Mexico has been struggling to develop its economy since Spain invaded Mexico in 1521 and it gained its independence in 1821.  When Mexico was a colony, Spain relied upon exports of silver to profit from its control over the economy.  The economy stagnated after Mexico...
Four Centuries of Stocks and Bonds in Retrospect

Four Centuries of Stocks and Bonds in Retrospect

Financial markets have evolved over time. The relationship between stocks and bonds differed in each of the eras that Global Financial Data has created to differentiate the behavior of financial markets in the past: the Dutch East India Co. (1601-1692), the Glorious...
Fixed Income Bull and Bear Markets

Fixed Income Bull and Bear Markets

Bear markets are clearly defined: a decline of 20% or more in an equity market constitutes a bear market.  By this definition, the United States had 18 bear markets in the 1900s.  But what is a bull market? Global Financial Data (GFD) has supplemented the definition...
Argentina Crashes – Again

Argentina Crashes – Again

Argentina just suffered one of the worst one-day declines in global stock market history.  The current President of Argentina, Mauricio Macri, suffered a worse defeat in primary elections than was expected making it almost certain that his opponent Alberto Fernandez...
The Encilhamento

The Encilhamento

Brazil went through an economic bubble in the 1880s that burst in the 1890s during the first Brazilian military dictatorship.  Two finance ministers in Brazil adopted a policy of unrestricted credit for industrial investments in the 1880s.  This led to speculation,...

GFD Finaeon Release Notes: May 17, 2019

GFD had minor release to our live site and data set on 5/17/2019. See below for details on the changes 1. GFD did our annual review and went back to the data published on central bank websites to compare the data published on their websites with the data in the...
Events in Time Anniversaries: May 2019

Events in Time Anniversaries: May 2019

25 years ago: May 1994 S&P 500: 456.50 (vs. 2881.40 in 05/2019) 10-year U.S. Government Bond Yield: 7.17% (vs. 2.47% in 05/2019) Gold: $387.60 (vs. $1287.10 in 05/2019) Oil: $18.295 (vs. $61.65 in 05/2019) GBP/USD: 1.5105 (vs. 1.2999 in 05/2019) US GDP: $7,115...
A New Stock Market Index for Canada

A New Stock Market Index for Canada

Canada has one of the ten largest markets in the world. With a capitalization of over $2 trillion and over 3300 listed companies, and many of its companies listed in New York, Canadian companies have played an important role in the global economy over the past 150...
A Revised Index for South Africa

A Revised Index for South Africa

Global Financial Data has collected data on companies from South Africa that listed in London during the 1800s and 1900s. Between 1835 and 1985, over 400 South African companies listed in London. Before 1890, there were fewer than 20 South African companies in London,...
Argentina: The Ever-Emerging Market

Argentina: The Ever-Emerging Market

Argentina is one of the most interesting countries among emerging markets. Argentina was one of the ten richest countries in the world in the 1920s, but now doesn’t even make the top 50. Argentina was downgraded from emerging market status by MSCI to being a frontier...
Investors and the French Revolution

Investors and the French Revolution

Most people know the basic story of the French Revolution.  France’s aid to the United States indebted the nation leading to new taxes that fed a revolt against the king and the aristocracy. The Estates General was convened in May 1789, and on July 14, 1789, the...
Events in Time Anniversaries: April 2019

Events in Time Anniversaries: April 2019

4/9/2019 – 25 years ago: April 1994 S&P 500: 450.91 (vs. 2867.24 in 04/2019) 10-year U.S. Government Bond Yield: 7.06% (vs. 2.52% in 04/2019) Gold: $376.45 (vs. $1293.50 in 04/2019) Oil: $16.915 (vs. $61.59 in 04/2019) GBP/USD: 1.4835 (vs. 1.309 in 03/2019)...
750 Years of Interest Rates

750 Years of Interest Rates

Global Financial Data has collected centuries of data on interest rates. We wanted to highlight two data sets from the GFD Indices that cover government bond yields from 1285 to 2019 and that cover central bank deposit rates from 1522 until 2019. With these two...
Will America’s Outperformance Continue?

Will America’s Outperformance Continue?

Global Financial Data has generated indices on the United States and the World Index excluding the United States since 1792. This enables us to compare the performance of stocks in the United States with the rest of the world over the past 225 years. Generally...
GFD World Index 2.0

GFD World Index 2.0

Global financial Data has calculated a new World Index that extends from the beginning of stock markets in Amsterdam in 1601 to the present day.  It will succeed the original World Index that GFD first calculated 20 years ago.  With the World Index 2.0 we can clearly...
GFD’s London Emerging Market Indices

GFD’s London Emerging Market Indices

Global Financial Data has put together a unique collection of alternative data indices that chart the performance of stocks in dozens of different countries around the world.  The first company for which Global Financial Data has data, the Dutch East India Co., was...
Stocks for the Very Long Run: The UK-100

Stocks for the Very Long Run: The UK-100

Global Financial Data has added the UK-100 Index to its family of GFD Indices. The UK-100 index (GFUK100MPD) provides a DAILY index of stocks from the London Stock Exchange that begins in 1692 and ends in 1985. The index has a base of 12/31/1983 = 1000 so the index...
The Ottoman Empire on the London Stock Exchange

The Ottoman Empire on the London Stock Exchange

Global Financial Data has the most extensive database on historical stocks available anywhere in the world.  GFD has collected data on stocks that listed on the London Stock Exchange from the 1600s until 2018.  London was the financial center of the world until World...
The Suez Canal and the Egyptian Stock Market

The Suez Canal and the Egyptian Stock Market

Global Financial Data has the most extensive database on historical stocks available anywhere in the world.  GFD has collected data on stocks that listed on the London Stock Exchange from the 1600s until 2018.  London was the financial center of the world until World...
Events in Time Anniversaries: April 2020

Events in Time Anniversaries: January 2019

25 years ago: January 1994 S&P 500: 481.61 (vs. 2635.96 in 01/2019) 10-year U.S. Government Bond Yield: 5.7% (vs. 2.75% in 01/2019) Gold: $377.90 (vs. $1290.70 in 01/2019) GBP/USD: 1.505 (vs. 1.2984 in 01/2019) US GDP: 7,013 billion (vs. 20,658 billion in 01/2019)...
Cuban Capitalism?

Cuban Capitalism?

  Global Financial Data has the most extensive database on historical stocks available anywhere in the world.  GFD has collected data on stocks that listed on the London Stock Exchange from the 1600s until 2018.  London was the financial center of the world until...
The Coming Decline in the CAPE Ratios

The Coming Decline in the CAPE Ratios

Global Financial Data has the most extensive collection of CAPE Ratios available anywhere.  Our CAPE Ratios cover over 50 countries and the CAPE Ratio for the United States begins in 1841, 40 years before the CAPE Ratios that were calculated by Shiller using data from...
Singapore: The Crazy, Rich Rubber City-State

Singapore: The Crazy, Rich Rubber City-State

Global Financial Data has the most extensive database on historical stocks available anywhere.  In particular, we have collected data on stocks that listed on the London Stock Exchange from the 1600s until 2018.  London was the financial center of the world until...

The Five Eras of Financial Markets

  Global Financial Data has produced indices that cover global markets from 1601 until 2018.  In organizing this data, we have discovered that the history of the stock market over the past 400 years can be broken up into four distinct eras when economic and...
World War 1 and Global Stock Markets

World War 1 and Global Stock Markets

This month the world is marking the 100th anniversary of the end of World War I which officially ended at 11 am on November 11, 1918.  Few people, however, have talked about the impact of the Great War on financial markets, both during and after the war was over....
Sears: The Amazon of the Twentieth Century

Sears: The Amazon of the Twentieth Century

Sears Holding Co. filed for protection under Chapter 11 bankruptcy on October 15, 2018 to avoid a $134 million debt payment.  Thus, an American icon which issued its first catalog in 1887 and opened its first store in 1925 came to an end.  Between 1906 when the...
Moore Whiskey Dividends

Moore Whiskey Dividends

Although most dividends are paid in cash, companies are free to provide their shareholders with any type of dividend they want, including shares of stock or dividends in kind.  Although the people on Wall Street often behave like they are a bunch of drunks, that...