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Perspectives on Economics and finances with GFD

300 years of the Equity-Risk Premium

  The equity-risk premium (ERP) is one of the most important variables in finance. It tells investors how much a risky investment such as stocks returns relative to a risk-free investment such as government bonds.  Any history of the equity premium shows that its...

Another Sign of an Overvalued Market?

Another Sign of an Overvalued Market?

  The United States stock market has broken to new highs in January 2020, continuing a bull market that began in March 2009.  The S&P 500 has risen 382% since March 2009 and is approaching the record bull market of 1974-1987 in which the S&P 500 rose...

Events in Time Anniversaries: January 2020

Events in Time Anniversaries: January 2020

  25 years ago: January 1995 S&P 500: 470.42 (vs. 3253.05 in 01/2020) 10-year U.S. Government Bond Yield: 7.60% (vs. 1.85% in 01/2020) Gold: $374.90 (vs. $1571.95 in 01/2020) Oil: $18.405 (vs. $59.65 in 01/2020) GBP/USD: 1.5785 (vs. 1.3077 in 01/2020) US GDP:...

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GFD Insights

230 years of Data Show Rates Will Soon Hit 0.50%

230 years of Data Show Rates Will Soon Hit 0.50%

  While everyone has been concerned about the sell off in the stock market in the past two weeks, this decline should be contrasted with the rapid rise in the price of government bonds.  For the first time in history, the yield on the 10-year government bond fell...

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The Spanish Flu and the Stock Market: The Pandemic of 1919

The Spanish Flu and the Stock Market: The Pandemic of 1919

  Everyone is concerned about the coronavirus and how it is impacting the global economy.  Parts of China have been quarantined to prevent the spread of the virus and the world is wondering how the virus will disrupt supply chains between China and the rest of...

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