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The Market’s Thirty-Year Cycle Continues

The Market’s Thirty-Year Cycle Continues

  The United States stock market has been moving in 30-year Cycles since the 1890s.  Now that the 2010s have finished, we can examine the data to see if this pattern continued during the previous decade.  The short answer is, it did! Table 1 provides the real...

Events in Time Anniversaries: February 2020

Events in Time Anniversaries: February 2020

    25 years ago: February 1995 S&P 500: 487.39 (vs. 3380.16 in 02/2020) 10-year U.S. Government Bond Yield: 7.22% (vs. 1.59% in 02/2020) Gold: $376.40 (vs. $1581.40 in 02/2020) Oil: $18.515 (vs. $52.03 in 02/2020) GBP/USD: 1.5825 (vs. 1.3046 in 02/2020)...

300 years of the Equity-Risk Premium

  The equity-risk premium (ERP) is one of the most important variables in finance. It tells investors how much a risky investment such as stocks returns relative to a risk-free investment such as government bonds.  Any history of the equity premium shows that its...

Another Sign of an Overvalued Market?

Another Sign of an Overvalued Market?

  The United States stock market has broken to new highs in January 2020, continuing a bull market that began in March 2009.  The S&P 500 has risen 382% since March 2009 and is approaching the record bull market of 1974-1987 in which the S&P 500 rose...

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GFD Insights

The Worst March in History!

The Worst March in History!

The Worst March in History! Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist, Global Financial Data   Not only did the Covid Crisis send stocks tumbling in March throughout the world, but it also created some of the worst monthly performances for the month of March in stock market...

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Stocks Bounce Back in the Second Quarter

Stocks Bounce Back in the Second Quarter

Stocks Bounce Back in the Second Quarter Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist, Global Financial Data   So far the coronavirus has given investors a wild ride during the first half of the year.  Virtually every stock market in the world declined in value during the first...

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Events in Time Anniversaries: August 2020

Events in Time Anniversaries: August 2020

Events in Time Anniversaries: August 2020   25 years ago: August 1995 S&P 500: 561.88 (vs. 3351.28 in 08/2020) 10-year U.S. Government Bond Yield: 6.28% (vs. 0.57% in 08/2020) Gold: $382.35 (vs. $2067.15 in 08/2020) Oil: $17.895 (vs. $41.93 in 08/2020)...

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