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GFD Blog

The Loughborough Canal and the Greatest 70 Shares in History

One of the more interesting canal stocks that traded in Britain during the 1800s was the Loughborough Canal Navigation Co. which incorporated in 1776. This was a small canal, only 9.25 miles in length going from Loughborough where there is a junction with the Leicester Navigation to the River Trent at Cranfleet.

In 1634 Thomas Skipworth had been granted letters by the king to enable him to build a navigable canal to Leicester, but Skipworth failed to complete it. A second failed attempt occurred in 1736, and the Loughborough Canal was finally approved by Parliament in ...

Trump’s Tariffs: Smoot–Hawley Tariff Version 2.0?

Donald Trump’s inauguration speech vowed to return protectionism in an effort to not only bolster employment, but to recapture positions that have migrated overseas. His initial defense against the outflow of American jobs to foreign countries is to raise border taxes on foreign goods imported into the US by renegotiating the NAFTA Agreement. Spearheading this charge is a specific tariff, and perhaps one might say, penalty, on Mexico, by levying a 20% fee on goods produced by Mexico.

Rather than singling out a specific country, Trump should study the effects of the Tariff Act of 1930, ...

Global Financial Data Provides Longer Histories for its United States Corporate and Muni Bonds

Global Financial Data has extended the histories for its corporate and muni bond indices. This includes not only the series covering the yields on corporate and municipal bonds, but the total return series and price series for each as well.

Previously, GFD had data back to 1857 for its corporate and municipal bonds. This research has enabled the municipal bond index to begin in 1789 and the corporate bond index to begin in 1815. Yields on corporate bonds from 1815 to 2017 are illustrated below.The municipal bond index was pushed back using data from Massachusetts notes from 1789 to 1 ...

DJIA to hit 40,000 by 2030?

On May 26, 1896, Charles Dow, an editor at the Wall Street Journal and co-founder of Dow Jones & Company, created a new stock market index and named it the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Never did he dream of it hitting 20,000 when it opened at 32. By 1905, 10 years after it had been created, the DJIA had doubled to 65.

Solving the Exchange Bias Problem in United Kingdom Stocks

One of the goals of the US Stocks Database and the UK Stocks Database is to eliminate the survivorship bias and the exchange bias that all other stock databases suffer from. Survivorship bias occurs when only stocks currently listed are included in a database and delisted stocks are excluded. Exchange bias occurs when historical data for stocks that were previously listed on another exchange or traded over-the-counter are excluded, providing an incomplete picture of the history of the company’s stock price.

This can also create a sector bias. If a sector tends to have stocks listed o ...

Seven Centuries of Real Estate Prices

Global Financial Data has put together a data series covering seven centuries of real estate prices. The series covers real estate costs in Great Britain from 1290 to the current day.

How did we do this? Unfortunately, there was no Ye Olde Zillow Real Estate Co. that had stayed in business for seven centuries and allowed us to analyze their records, but instead we spliced together several long-term series to create this index. The data from 1290 to 1894 is actually based upon the rental costs of housing rather than actual housing prices since rental data was the only information th ...

Benjamin Harrison and the Terrible Tariff

Donald Trump was elected president promising to use protectionist measures, if necessary, to bring jobs back to America. Economists warn that raising tariffs reduces trade and hurts the economy. The Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930 is blamed for intensifying the Great Depression, and the lesser-known McKinley Tariff of 1890 provides an instructive lesson on how protectionist policies can impact the stock market and politics.

In 1888, the protectionist Republican Benjamin Harrison defeated the pro-trade Democrat Grover Cleveland. Cleveland won the popular vote, but Harrison won the electoral ...

The Future of Energy Prices: Lessons from 750 Years of History

Today, the future of energy prices is as uncertain as ever. Whereas in the 1970s, there was a fear that the supply of oil could decline dramatically, causing future oil prices to rise, fracking and other technological innovations have increased oil reserves to levels never before seen in history. At the same time, natural gas is becoming a clean substitute for petroleum, and because of concerns over global warming, solar power and battery technology are improving dramatically as attempts to end the economy’s dependence on carbon-based energy increase. Although coal is one of the dirtiest of ...

2017: Let the Bull Markets Continue

In our annual review of global stock markets, we noticed that a relatively large number of countries put in what could be a bear market bottom in 2016. If this is true, investors should expect that global markets will continue a bull market run in 2017 rather than forming a top that leads to a bear market.

Global Financial Data has data on bull and bear markets on 100 countries beginning in 1693. With this data, we have been able to track bull and bear markets during the past three centuries. We define a bear market as a decline of 20% or more in a country’s primary s ...

Global Financial Data Introduces Proprietary Commodity Indices Covering 1000 Years

Global Financial Data has introduced commodity indices which have the longest histories available anywhere as part of its family of GFD Indices. These commodity indices begin in the year 1000 and are current through 2016. The data are monthly and are updated on an ongoing basis.

The GFD Commodity Indices include a composite index, three commodity indices and eight commodity sub-indices. The Composite Index is broken down into three categories, energy, agriculturals and industrials. There are no sub-indices for energy, but there are five sub-indices for agriculturals (beverages, soft f ...

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